2024 Republican Race Is No Longer a Slam Dunk for Donald Trump  

For the better part of a year, when asked if I thought Donald Trump would be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024, my answer has been the same: if he runs, he will be. 

The results of a new national poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College and published on Tuesday, as well as some other events, have caused me to rethink my previous binary assessment. 

Trump received 49% of the vote in the poll, with DeSantis coming in second with 25%. Nobody else, not even former Vice President Mike Pence or former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley's rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, received more than 10% of the vote. 

More than half of all Republican primary voters in 2024 said they would support a candidate other than Trump. 

And among Trump voters who rated each candidate as "very" favorable in 2020, a proxy for enthusiasm among the party base, Trump (46%) and DeSantis (44% ) had nearly identical numbers. 

There are two additional factors to think about 

Incredibly for a governor seeking a second term, DeSantis ended the month of May with over $100 million in the bank for his 2022 reelection campaign.